2019-07-19 —

On Thursday, investors got excited about the possibility of a bigger-than-expected interest rate cut. New York Fed President John Williams on Thursday said policy makers should take preventative measures at the first signs of economic slowdowns. The market took this to mean that a bigger interest rate cut was on the way.

Expectations of a half-percentage-point cut at the Fed's next meeting in two weeks more than doubled to 60% in response. Treasury yields and the US dollar slipped. But then a spokesperson clarified that Williams wasn't making any predictions about the Fed's monetary policy update due in two weeks. Expectations for a half-point cut retreated to 41% on Friday, although that was still more elevated than just two days ago.

In the latest attack on Fed policy, President Donald Trump tweeted that he preferred Williams first statement, calling it "100% correct that the Fed 'raised' far too fast and too early."

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