IEHI Feed: The Hedge Fund Implode-o-Meter http://implode-explode.com/ Tracking the many faces of the global credit implosion. en-us iehi-feed-64228 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 22:36:27 GMT Adapt Or Die: The Ways Landlords Are Bending Over Backward To Deal With A Shifting Retail World http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_AdaptOrDieTheWaysLandlordsAreBendingOverBackwardToDealWithAShift.html In the first half of 2018, more than 2,500 store locations closed in the United States, according to JLL's retail outlook report from the second quarter, and nearly 600 more locations will close by the end of the year. Across the country, the closures of retailers like Sears and Toys R Us have dumped empty space on the market. Retail absorption declined nearly 60% in Q2 2018 from a year earlier as vacancy ticked up.

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space left open by department store closures is being filled by operators that offer either value or an experience. Former Macy's stores, for example, are being filled by Whole Foods or Life Time Fitness, according to JLL's report, while AMC Theatres and H&M have gone into space once occupied by Sears and JC Penney.

It's all part of the trend toward service-driven, experiential real estate. Consumers are looking for experiences; something that cannot be recreated online, or that can be posted on Instagram. Or both.''

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iehi-feed-64227 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 19:32:49 GMT Tax Cuts Blow Out Federal Collections, Causing More Treasury Paper Dumping by the Truckload. | Lee Adler http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_TaxCutsBlowOutFederalCollectionsCausingMoreTreasuryPaperDumpingb.html For February, March, May, June, July, and August, Federal revenues fell by $81.5 billion, or an average of $13.6 billion per month. As Bloomberg put it so elegantly, "The White House says the tax cuts will pay for themselves by creating more revenue through faster economic growth."

But it ain't happening, folks! Tax cuts are not paying for themselves. Yes, there's more economic growth, but there's less revenue. Of course massive deficits are stimulative. Even we non economists know that. But where's the revenue growth? It's nowhere to be found.

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Furthermore, the uptick in GDP growth isn't even as high as a couple of quarters in 2014. So there's not even that much evidence that the tax cut is stimulating much. For sure the economy would have been slower without it, but the limited economic gains produced by this spending have a cost.

I hate to beat the horse that's already dead, but that cost is massive federal borrowing. The deficits must be paid for by the issuance of ever increasing amounts of Treasury debt. When that debt comes to market dealers and investors must buy it. The Fed stopped printing the money to buy all that paper at the end of 2014. And since October of 2017, the Fed has actually been extinguishing money. There's less and less money in the banks, making it that much tougher for dealers and investors to absorb all the new paper.

Because of that, Treasury bill and note yields have been blowing the roof off. Short term bill rates and 2 year note yields are skyrocketing. The yield on the 10 year note is knocking at the door of 3% again.''

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iehi-feed-64226 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 18:12:37 GMT Florida Foreclosures Are Skyrocketing Thanks To The Florida Supreme Court http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_FloridaForeclosuresAreSkyrocketingThanksToTheFloridaSupremeCourt.html iehi-feed-64225 Thu, 20 Sep 2018 18:10:37 GMT ATTENTION Mark Stopa Foreclosure Clients! http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-21_ATTENTIONMarkStopaForeclosureClients.html iehi-feed-64223 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 18:02:17 GMT Disgraced Foreclosure Defense Attorney's Law Firm Imploding Into Chaos! http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-20_DisgracedForeclosureDefenseAttorneysLawFirmImplodingIntoChaos.html iehi-feed-64222 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 17:13:03 GMT CNBC Just Posted Fake Inflation News. What Are The Implications for Fed Dovishness? | Lee Adler http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-20_CNBCJustPostedFakeInflationNewsWhatAreTheImplicationsforFedDovis.html ... is there any evidence of persistence here? Or is there any evidence that this month's headline reading was even material in the first place? A quick answer to the second question requiring no deeper analysis is...

No. There's no evidence that this was even material... In other words, the rally was based on the idea that the Fed might not tighten as fast or as much if inflation is really slowing. It's perfectly obvious to us that it isn't.

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There's simply no reason in the CPI data to believe that the Fed will back off from its tightening regimen. The longer the market stays high and the more it rises, the greater the risk of a severe adjustment.

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iehi-feed-64221 Wed, 19 Sep 2018 15:16:58 GMT FTC Shuts Down Websites Preying On Section 8 Renters http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_FTCShutsDownWebsitesPreyingOnSection8Renters.html iehi-feed-64220 Tue, 18 Sep 2018 23:43:08 GMT For Bitcoin, FOMO Is Being Replaced With FUD (Fear, Uncertainty And Doubt) http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_ForBitcoinFOMOIsBeingReplacedWithFUDFearUncertaintyAndDoubt.html FUD says Mt. Gox's billion dollars of bitcoin will crash the price. I hope so, I really do, because I'm still waiting for some cheap bitcoins; $2,500 a coin is cheap enough for me.

I'm still waiting, because $1 billion of bitcoin will evaporate in a week or two of selling. $2 or $3 billion of bitcoin gets transacted a day... Already 82% of all bitcoins are mined and around May 2020 new supply will halve. You can love or hate that, but bitcoin is solid deflationary money. We shouldn't hold the ‘digital gold' moniker against it. Bitcoin is a global currency, with increasing acceptance, a huge brand up there with Trump and the NFL, a global audience and a record of appreciation.

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iehi-feed-64218 Tue, 18 Sep 2018 18:06:22 GMT Trump Tower Condo Values Continue To Plummet By Double Digits http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-19_TrumpTowerCondoValuesContinueToPlummetByDoubleDigits.html iehi-feed-64216 Mon, 17 Sep 2018 13:09:22 GMT Porsche Dealership VP Disappears After Pocketing $2.5 Million In Deposits http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-17_PorscheDealershipVPDisappearsAfterPocketing25MillionInDeposits.html iehi-feed-64215 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 15:05:37 GMT The 2008 crisis really did start off worse than the Great Depression http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_The2008crisisreallydidstartoffworsethantheGreatDepression.html ``As economists Barry Eichengreen and Kevin O'Rourke have shown, global stocks, trade and output actually all fell faster in 2008 than they had in 1929. Maybe the best example, though, of how quickly things turned was that South Korea, which didn't have any exposure to subprime mortgages but did have banks that depended on borrowing the money they needed from markets, went from growing at a 3.5 percent pace right before the Lehman Bros. collapse to shrinking at a 12.7 percent pace right after.''

This is really fascinating. The debate is between those who believe "policymakers deserve credit for doing enough to stop this from turning into a Second Great Depression", and "those who say policymakers didn't do enough to stop this from being far worse than it needed to be." There is apparently no space for those who think policymakers did too much, or even that they screwed up royally in creating the conditions for the collapse in the first place. Be afraid.

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iehi-feed-64213 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:24:16 GMT Mortgage Application Fraud Skyrocketing By Double Digits http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_MortgageApplicationFraudSkyrocketingByDoubleDigits.html iehi-feed-64212 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:04:15 GMT Yellen Advocates Insane Boom-and-Bust-Cyclical Policy http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_YellenAdvocatesInsaneBoomandBustCyclicalPolicy.html iehi-feed-64211 Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:02:22 GMT These countries are most vulnerable to the emerging market storm http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_Thesecountriesaremostvulnerabletotheemergingmarketstorm.html iehi-feed-64210 Sat, 15 Sep 2018 23:49:17 GMT Mortgage Shotgunning Scheme Sends NY Real Estate Broker To Prison http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-16_MortgageShotgunningSchemeSendsNYRealEstateBrokerToPrison.html iehi-feed-64209 Sat, 15 Sep 2018 14:51:51 GMT JPMorgan Sees Liquidity Wildcard in Gauging Depth of Next Crisis http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-15_JPMorganSeesLiquidityWildcardinGaugingDepthofNextCrisis.html ``A decade after the collapse of Lehman Brothers sparked a plunge in markets and a raft of emergency measures, strategists at the bank have created a model aimed at gauging the timing and severity of the next financial crisis. And they reckon investors should pencil it in for 2020.

The good news is, the next one will probably generate a somewhat less painful hit than past episodes, according to their analysis. The bad news? Diminished financial market liquidity since the 2008 implosion is a "wildcard" that's tough to game out...

Assuming an average-length recession, the model came up with the following peak-to-trough performance estimates for different asset classes in the next crisis, according to the note:

U.S. stock slide of about 20 percent.

A jump in U.S. corporate-bond yield premiums of about 1.15 percentage points.

A 35 percent tumble in energy prices and 29 percent slump in base metals.

A 2.79 percentage point widening in spreads on emerging-nation government debt.

A 48 percent slide in emerging-market stocks, and a 14.4 percent drop in emerging currencies.

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[But] JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic has previously concluded that the big shift away from actively managed investing -- through the rise of index funds, exchange-traded funds and quantitative-based trading strategies -- has escalated the danger of market disruptions. He and his colleagues wrote in a separate note Monday of the potential for a future "Great Liquidity Crisis." ... This change has "eliminated a large pool of assets that would be standing ready to buy cheap public securities and backstop a market disruption," Chang and Loeys warned.

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iehi-feed-64208 Fri, 14 Sep 2018 19:10:23 GMT Trader blows €100m hole in Nasdaq's Nordic power market http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-15_Traderblows100mholeinNasdaqsNordicpowermarket.html One of Norway's richest men has blown a hole of more than €100m in a stability fund that ensures the safety of derivatives-trading in European electricity markets.Coming in the same week as the 10th anniversary of Lehman Brothers' collapse, the trading losses will focus attention on the robustness of standards promoted by policymakers globally after the financial crisis.Einar Aas, a private trader who has been among Norway's highest earners in recent years thanks to aggressive bets in European power markets, saw his positions collapse on Monday after extreme market moves in German and Nordic energy markets.Nasdaq, the principal trading exchange where futures contracts tied to physical energy markets in the Nordic region are transacted, said Mr Aas had defaulted on Tuesday after he was unable to meet margin calls at its clearing house on lossmaking trades.

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Nasdaq cut the entire trade on Wednesday and the exchange confirmed that the loss accounted for all of the exchange's own default fund of €7m and swallowed €107m, or two-thirds, of its €166m mutual default fund that clearing house members must contribute to.

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With Nasdaq and members of its clearing house repairing the damage, questions as to how a single trader could come close to wiping out the clearing house's layers of protection will merit the attention of regulators, including the European Central Bank.Members of the clearing house include some of the biggest banks and energy traders such as Morgan Stanley, UBS and Equinor, Norway's state oil company... .The catalyst for the trading loss was a series of backfiring bets on the price difference between German and Nordic power markets, according to multiple sources in the industry.

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iehi-feed-64207 Fri, 14 Sep 2018 15:10:30 GMT Miami Escort Service Owner Sentenced To 24 Months In Prison For Tax Fraud http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-14_MiamiEscortServiceOwnerSentencedTo24MonthsInPrisonForTaxFraud.html iehi-feed-64206 Thu, 13 Sep 2018 16:19:50 GMT Pro-Marijuana Candidate Keeps Having Bank Accounts Closed http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-14_ProMarijuanaCandidateKeepsHavingBankAccountsClosed.html iehi-feed-64205 Wed, 12 Sep 2018 16:41:30 GMT Podiatrist Sentenced To 28 Month Of Enduring Rancid Foot Odors Of Prisoners http://hf-implode.com/viewnews/2018-09-13_PodiatristSentencedTo28MonthOfEnduringRancidFootOdorsOfPrisoners.html